by Don
Macdonald
The
Gazette, February
12, 1999
“The
Nikkei was up to 30 per cent in 1989 alone and hit 38,915.87 on Dec. 29, 1989.
As it
happened, that day marked the top of the market and the beginning of the end for
Japan’s economic miracle. Nine
long years later, the Japanese market is still mired in the worst bear market
since the Great Depression. Dec.
29, 1989, also marked a big turning point for a young Montreal stockbroker named
Sid Klein.”
“’For
the last 10 years, I’ve identified virtually every high and low in the Japan
market’ says Klein, a tall, intense man who lacks neither
self-confidence or chutzpa.”
“In
early October, Klein finally turned bullish on the Japanese market and is
now predicting a long upswing for Japanese stocks.
Many of the ones he likes have been beaten down to book value or below.
‘What
we are looking at is a low in Japan that is the same as the low in New York in
1932,’ says Klein, who is frequently quoted in Barron’s newspaper.
‘And if you were in the right industries in 1932 you bought perennial
family wealth that is still standing today.’”
“Klein’s
undaunted by the doubts of other Japan watchers. He notes there was lots of bad news after the New York Stock
Exchange bottomed in 1932. Commodity
prices slid until 1936, the depression dragged on until the beginning of World
War II and then tens of millions of people were killed in the fighting.
Klein’s
style is to perform technical analysis on the market and fundamental analysis on
individual companies, while keeping a close watch on economic and political
developments through news services and other research sources.”
“Academic
research has found that historically there is a weak correlation between the
performance of the U.S. and the Japanese markets.
The
Nikkei has fallen 91 per cent in relation to the Dow over the last 10
years…”